Oil prices continued to move higher during Asian trading on Tuesday, extending gains for a fourth straight session as mounting unrest in Iran raised concerns over potential supply disruptions and added to geopolitical risk premiums.
By 21:18 ET (02:18 GMT), Brent crude oil futures for March delivery were up 0.4% at $64.10 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude futures also climbed 0.4% to $59.70 per barrel.
In the previous session, Brent crude surged to its highest level in more than seven weeks, while WTI touched a one-month high, reflecting tightening supply expectations.
Iran unrest drives supply risk premium
Iran, a major producer within OPEC, is experiencing its most severe anti-government protests in years. The unrest has reportedly turned violent, with security forces cracking down on demonstrators and significant casualties reported.
U.S. President Donald Trump warned that Washington could consider military action if Iranian authorities continue using lethal force against protesters. Trump also announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on any country “doing business” with Iran, in a bid to further isolate Tehran economically.
Analysts at ING noted that China remains a key buyer of Iranian crude, adding that it remains uncertain whether the threat of secondary tariffs would be enough to deter Chinese imports.
A report from Reuters added that Trump is expected to meet with senior advisers to discuss policy options regarding Iran, keeping markets on edge.
Russia export disruptions add to supply concerns
Supply risks are not confined to the Middle East. Russia’s oil export infrastructure has also come under strain amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. Ukrainian forces have repeatedly targeted Russian oil facilities and export hubs, including the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal near Novorossiysk.
Exports of Kazakh crude via the CPC terminal are expected to face heavy pressure this month. According to Bloomberg, shipments are projected at 800,000 to 900,000 barrels per day, roughly 45% below initial estimates.
Venezuela output could offset some losses
Meanwhile, Venezuela, another OPEC producer, is preparing to return to global oil markets following a period of disruption. After recent political developments and the capture of former leader Nicolas Maduro, Trump said last week that Venezuela would transfer up to 50 million barrels of oil to the United States.
While additional Venezuelan supply could eventually ease market tightness, traders remain focused on near-term geopolitical risks and the potential for further disruptions across key producing regions.
