Bitcoin’s long-term power law model suggests the price could face a critical test around $65,000 if 2026 turns into a prolonged consolidation year for the market.
According to recent analysis, Bitcoin may be approaching a “do-or-die” phase should the coming year resemble a traditional bear market. The model indicates that long-standing four-year cycles and bear phases still matter, even as Bitcoin matures.
$65,000 seen as a decisive battleground
Fresh commentary from Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, highlights $65,000 as the next major support level to watch. Power law analysis aims to define a “fair value” range, and historically, moves toward its lower support lines have often coincided with long-term market bottoms.
After closely tracking its power law trend during much of the recent bull run, Bitcoin could now be due for a retest of deeper support. Timmer noted that BTC is currently following the internet-style S-curve more closely than the traditional power law, with the lower trend line sitting near $45,000.
For now, Timmer described $65,000 — the previous all-time high — as the key line in the sand. Below that, $45,000 represents the power law support. While that lower level remains distant, extended consolidation through 2026 could bring the trend line closer to $65,000, turning it into a pivotal make-or-break zone.
Bear markets still part of Bitcoin’s evolution
The analysis also revisits the debate over whether Bitcoin is still governed by four-year cycles. Timmer argued that while halving events appear to have a diminishing impact over time, bear markets are unlikely to disappear entirely.
That view was echoed by executive David Eng, who said that assuming Bitcoin has “graduated” into a no-bear-market phase misunderstands how asset prices form. He emphasized that Bitcoin remains a scarce, fixed-supply asset embedded in the financial system, rather than a pure S-curve technology like the internet. Eng added that as Bitcoin matures, price cycles are likely to lengthen and overall volatility to decline.
‘Compressed’ price action may fuel a rebound
Debate around Bitcoin’s cycle structure intensified after 2025 ended with negative performance. Historically, Bitcoin has never finished a post-halving year lower than where it started, prompting some investors to question the relevance of cycle-based models.
Eng, however, believes the current “compressed” readings from the power law framework argue in favor of an eventual upside resolution. He said Bitcoin is not stalling but coiling below its long-term growth path, and past behavior suggests that such periods typically resolve through price catching up to the trend rather than the trend itself breaking down.
