Bernstein raised its 2026 gold price target to $4,180 per ounce in a note released Wednesday, while cautioning that many of the powerful drivers behind the metal’s multi-year surge may already be priced in.
Analyst Bob Brackett said the firm is “marking gold price to market at $4,180 per ounce in 2026,” pointing to continued buying by central banks as they diversify reserves away from the U.S. dollar.
He also noted that gold ETF inflows accelerated in 2025, reflecting growing interest from both institutional and retail investors. In addition, expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 are seen as another supportive factor for gold prices.
Bernstein highlighted gold’s unusual strength despite rising real interest rates. The firm observed that real rates increased by more than 3 percentage points over the past four years, while gold prices climbed roughly 135%—a divergence it described as atypical, given gold’s historically negative relationship with real rates.
While the link between Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and gold appears to have weakened, Bernstein said it still exists, though no longer in a linear form. The firm argued that safe-haven demand, sustained central bank purchases, and concerns over currency debasement have driven a structural re-rating in gold since 2023.
Despite strong underlying demand, Bernstein warned that further upside could be limited. Global central bank gold purchases slowed during the first nine months of 2025, and although ETF inflows helped offset that decline, the firm noted that ETF demand is pro-cyclical and can amplify both rallies and pullbacks.
Bernstein also cautioned that markets have a history of misjudging the future path of Fed policy, a critical variable for gold prices.
Even so, the firm reiterated its Outperform rating on Barrick, describing the stock as its preferred way to maintain a constructive view on gold.
