Bitcoin’s liquidation landscape remains tilted toward downside risk, with a large concentration of liquidity sitting below current prices. However, a sharp move higher toward $100,000 could rapidly shift market dynamics in favor of bullish momentum.
Bitcoin’s recent 7.4% rebound at the start of January has refocused attention on futures positioning, where liquidation data suggests price action may be uneven. Current figures show that more than $10.6 billion in leveraged long positions could be wiped out if Bitcoin drops back toward $84,000, while only about $2 billion in short positions are at risk if prices climb above $104,000.
Data from CoinGlass highlights why this imbalance matters. Liquidations often act as forced market orders, meaning a decline toward $84,000 could accelerate selling pressure as long positions are closed. On the upside, fewer short liquidations reduce the immediate fuel for a classic short squeeze—unless trader positioning shifts quickly.
The picture looks somewhat different on Hyperliquid. According to trader ChimpZoo, retail participants are disproportionately positioned on the short side. In that scenario, an upward move could liquidate roughly 6,000 BTC worth of retail shorts, compared with around 2,000 BTC of retail longs on a comparable downside move. While the trader described the setup as “absurd” in its bullish potential, a deeper look suggests risk is more balanced than it first appears.
On a $10,000 price swing, liquidation exposure on Hyperliquid is relatively symmetrical. Approximately 3,860 BTC in long positions would be liquidated on a downside move, versus about 4,100 BTC in short positions on an upside move. This indicates that volatility could rise sharply in either direction, rather than favoring a one-sided outcome.
Despite the possibility of liquidation-driven momentum, analyst Crypto Dan cautioned that Bitcoin is unlikely to move straight to new all-time highs. A key technical hurdle remains the $100,000 level, which represents the cost basis of long-term holders over the past six to twelve months. Data from CryptoQuant shows that a sustained break above this threshold would confirm a structural trend reversal and open the door to further gains. Failure to reclaim it would suggest the broader downtrend is still intact.
In the near term, downside risks also remain. Bitcoin may revisit unfilled CME gaps between $90,600 and $91,600, with another gap lower down between $88,170 and $88,700. If prices fail near resistance around $96,000, these levels could come back into focus later in the month.
