Baird expects Tesla to head into 2026 with several major catalysts that could significantly influence investor sentiment over the coming year. The firm currently rates the stock as Outperform and sees multiple upcoming developments as supportive for the longer-term outlook.
In a note published Tuesday, analyst Ben Kallo pointed out that despite a slow start to the year, Tesla shares are up 21% year to date and 7% over the past month, outperforming the S&P 500 on both measures.
Kallo said the firm remains committed to holding Tesla into the new year and continues to view the stock as a core long-term position.
Baird highlighted several developments investors should monitor closely, describing 2026 as a year likely to feature multiple announcements related to Tesla’s robotaxi service. The firm also anticipates potential updates on geographic expansion, revenue recognition, and regulatory approvals, particularly in markets such as China and the European Union.
Beyond autonomy, Baird expects progress across other areas of Tesla’s business. Kallo noted that 2026 should bring updates on Optimus production, greater clarity on the timeline toward commercialization, increased production volumes for the Tesla Semi, and continued expansion of the company’s Energy segment.
The analysts also revised their long-term financial model, adjusting assumptions related to vehicle mix, average selling prices, and deliveries through 2030.
As part of the update, Baird removed its previous expectations for a standalone Model 2. The firm explained that what was once believed to be a new vehicle platform ultimately turned out to be a new variant within the existing Model 3 and Model Y lineup. Current projections assume no production capacity expansion beyond 3 million vehicles per year.
On autonomous driving, Baird reaffirmed expectations for a paid robotaxi service to launch in 2027, along with initial commercial sales of Optimus robots in late 2027. The firm also cited encouraging progress on Full Self-Driving, including positive feedback on FSD version 14 from the robotics team at Nvidia.
Baird maintained its $548 price target on Tesla shares. The valuation is based on approximately 70 times projected 2030 EBITDA, discounted back to the end of 2026.
