Oil prices moved higher on Monday as investors assessed the outcome of talks between the U.S. and Ukrainian presidents on a possible agreement to end the war in Ukraine, while also keeping a close eye on rising Middle East tensions that could threaten global supply.
Brent crude futures gained 67 cents, or 1.1%, to $61.31 a barrel by 07:51 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose 65 cents, or 1.15%, to $57.39 per barrel.
Both benchmarks had dropped more than 2% on Friday amid concerns about a potential global supply glut and growing expectations that diplomatic progress on Ukraine could weigh on prices ahead of weekend discussions between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and U.S. President Donald Trump.
Speaking on Sunday, Trump said he and Zelenskiy were “getting a lot closer, maybe very close” to reaching an agreement to end the conflict, while noting that the status of the disputed Donbas region remains a major unresolved issue.
The two leaders addressed reporters at a joint press conference after meeting at Mar-a-Lago. Trump added that it should become clear “in a few weeks” whether negotiations to end the war will succeed.
Despite the diplomatic efforts, talks failed to resolve territorial disputes, meaning a Russia–Ukraine peace deal could remain stalled without a near-term breakthrough, according to Mingyu Gao, energy and chemical chief researcher at China Futures.
Analysts also pointed to persistent geopolitical risks as a factor supporting oil prices. Russia and Ukraine continued targeting each other’s energy infrastructure over the weekend, while tensions in the Middle East remained elevated. Saudi air strikes in Yemen and Iran’s warnings of a “full-scale war” involving the U.S., Europe, and Israel have added to market concerns over potential supply disruptions.
Looking ahead, WTI crude is expected to trade in a $55–$60 range, with additional focus on U.S. enforcement actions against Venezuelan oil shipments and the potential fallout from recent U.S. military strikes on ISIS targets in Nigeria, which produces around 1.5 million barrels per day, according to a note from IG analyst Tony Sycamore.
