Tesla is expected to miss market expectations for fourth-quarter vehicle deliveries, as analysts point to softer demand following the end of U.S. subsidies and more moderate momentum in other regions.
Shares of Tesla are under scrutiny after New Street Research projected fourth-quarter deliveries in the range of 415,000 to 435,000 vehicles. That estimate sits below the current market consensus of roughly 440,000 units.
New Street analyst Pierre Ferragu said deliveries are being dragged lower by demand being pulled forward into the third quarter, ahead of the expiration of U.S. electric vehicle subsidies at the end of September. As a result, fourth-quarter volumes are normalizing after a subsidy-driven surge earlier in the year.
The United States is seen as the primary source of weakness. Ferragu expects U.S. deliveries to decline by around 75,000 vehicles quarter-on-quarter, describing the slowdown as a temporary “air pocket” as demand adjusts to the loss of incentives.
A similar view was echoed by UBS analyst Joseph Spak, who forecasts total fourth-quarter deliveries of about 415,000 vehicles. That figure is roughly 5% below the Visible Alpha consensus estimate. Spak highlighted the expiration of the $7,500 U.S. consumer EV tax credit as a major headwind, warning that U.S. sales could drop more than 35% quarter-on-quarter and about 25% year-on-year.
Outside the U.S., analysts see relatively steadier trends. New Street Research expects deliveries in China and Europe to rise by around 10% sequentially, broadly in line with normal seasonal patterns. However, UBS noted that while Europe is improving on a quarter-on-quarter basis, deliveries are still likely to be lower than a year earlier.
Spak said deliveries across Europe’s eight largest markets rose about 31% quarter-on-quarter in the first two months of the period. He expects the region to end the quarter with roughly 70,000 deliveries, which would still represent a decline of about 15% year-on-year.
In China, deliveries are expected to edge higher from the prior quarter but could still fall by as much as 10% compared with last year, despite December typically being the strongest month for sales.
Elsewhere, deliveries in the rest of the world are forecast to cool after a strong third quarter. New Street Research expects a quarter-on-quarter decline following unusually strong demand in markets such as South Korea and Turkey. However, volumes are still projected to remain higher year-on-year as Tesla continues its international expansion. UBS also flagged softer momentum in Turkey after a tax incentive expired, alongside weaker demand trends in South Korea.
Lower delivery volumes are likely to weigh on profitability. Ferragu estimates Tesla’s gross margin could decline by 2.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, placing margins about 2.2 points below current consensus expectations.
Despite the near-term delivery challenges, some analysts argue that quarterly volumes may be becoming less central to the investment story. Spak noted that investor attention is increasingly shifting toward Tesla’s longer-term ambitions, including developments around robotaxis and the Optimus humanoid robot.
Tesla is expected to report its fourth-quarter delivery figures on January 2.
