The long-anticipated altcoin rally may fail to materialize in 2026, with liquidity instead concentrating in a small group of established cryptocurrencies, according to CoinEx Research chief analyst Jeff Ko.
Ko said investor expectations of a broad-based surge across altcoins are likely to fall short. He argued that capital flows will be highly selective, favoring only so-called “blue-chip” digital assets with proven adoption and staying power.
Rather than a traditional altseason, Ko expects liquidity to be funneled into top-tier cryptocurrencies, leaving weaker or speculative tokens behind. Retail investors hoping that rising market conditions will lift all assets equally may be disappointed, he warned.
Looking ahead to 2026, Ko anticipates only moderate global liquidity support, constrained by diverging central bank policies. He added that Bitcoin’s historical correlation with M2 money supply growth has weakened following the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, reducing the influence of liquidity expansion on price movements.
Despite these changes, CoinEx’s base outlook remains constructive on Bitcoin. Ko said the firm expects Bitcoin to target $180,000 by 2026, even as gains across the broader crypto market become more uneven.
Bear market risks remain
Not all analysts share this optimistic view. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has cautioned that the market could face another prolonged downturn before the next major peak.
Brandt noted that over the past 15 years, Bitcoin has experienced five major parabolic advances, each followed by drawdowns of at least 80%. While he believes the current cycle is still unfolding, he projects the next major bull market high could arrive as late as September 2029.
That timeline aligns with the widely followed four-year cycle theory, which suggests market peaks tend to occur roughly one year after a Bitcoin halving event, currently expected around April 2028. However, Brandt warned that a decline similar to past cycles could send Bitcoin back toward the $25,000 level before the next peak emerges.
Is the four-year cycle losing relevance?
Historically, the fourth quarter has often been Bitcoin’s strongest period. Data from Coinglass shows that eight of the past 12 fourth quarters delivered Bitcoin’s largest quarterly gains, with only one producing a single-digit return.
This year, however, Bitcoin has broken that pattern. The cryptocurrency is down more than 22% so far this quarter, marking one of its weakest fourth-quarter performances on record.
Macro investing publication Milk Road noted that such declines often flush out excess risk and weak positioning from the market. While this does not guarantee upside in 2026, past cycles that ended with sharp resets have sometimes laid the groundwork for stronger long-term recoveries.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading near $88,000, down roughly 30% from its all-time high reached in October.
