Yardeni Research has raised its outlook for gold, arguing that the powerful rally across precious metals is being driven by macroeconomic and policy-related concerns rather than a recovery in global growth.
Gold prices have climbed roughly 69% year over year. However, they have underperformed gains in silver, platinum, and palladium. According to Yardeni, this divergence weakens the argument that industrial demand is the main force behind the surge. In contrast, base metals that are more closely linked to manufacturing activity have posted far more modest gains.
Gold began leading the rally after breaking above $2,000 per ounce in early 2024. At that point, Yardeni turned bullish on bullion, citing rising central bank purchases following the freezing of Russia’s foreign reserves after its invasion of Ukraine.
However, Yardeni notes that central banks do not buy silver, platinum, or palladium. Despite this, those metals have also surged to record levels, suggesting that broader investor concerns — not official sector buying alone — are driving the move.
The research firm believes current precious metals prices are signaling unease over what it describes as an “overly stimulative mix of monetary and fiscal policy” expected in the United States next year.
Even if the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate cuts in early 2026, it is still committed to purchasing about $40 billion per month in Treasury bills through April, according to a recent statement from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
On the fiscal side, Yardeni points to remarks from Scott Bessent regarding potential tax refunds of $1,000 to $2,000 per household during the 2026 filing season. The firm also highlights discussions around possible tariff dividend payments, developments that could expand the federal deficit and add pressure to bond yields.
Against this backdrop, Yardeni has raised its year-end 2026 gold price target to $6,000 per ounce, following the metal’s move above $4,500. This marks an increase from its previous projections of $4,000 by the end of 2025 and $5,000 by the end of 2026.
Looking further ahead, the firm reiterated its long-term view that gold could reach $10,000 by the end of the decade. While gold and the S&P 500 often move in opposite directions over short periods, Yardeni notes that both assets have historically trended higher together over longer time horizons.
