Home Economic Indicators Strong Q3 Growth… Followed by a Sharp October GDP Drop

Strong Q3 Growth… Followed by a Sharp October GDP Drop

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Canada’s economy grew by 2.6% on an annualized basis in the third quarter, beating analysts’ expectations. According to Statistics Canada, exports rose faster than imports, and government spending helped lift capital investment.

GDP for September increased by 0.2% compared to August, matching forecasts. However, a flash estimate shows that October GDP will likely fall by 0.3%, signaling a possible slowdown.

Below are the seasonally adjusted GDP figures, expressed as percentages. All numbers, except for the price index, are adjusted for inflation.

Quarterly GDP data

Annualized change:

  • Q3: +2.6
  • Q2: -1.8
  • Q1: +2.2

Change from the previous quarter:

  • Q3: +0.6
  • Q2: -0.5
  • Q1: +0.5

Quarterly change in the implicit GDP price index:

  • Q3: +0.8
  • Q2: +0.1
  • Q1: +0.9

Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected a 0.5% annualized increase for the third quarter. They also forecast September GDP to rise by 0.2%, which aligned with actual data.