The British public’s expectations for inflation over the next year dropped to 3.7% in November, down from 4.2% in October, according to a YouGov survey conducted for U.S. bank Citi.
Citi said the decline may strengthen the case for a Bank of England rate cut in December, following the first slowdown in UK inflation since May.
Longer-term inflation expectations also eased, falling to 3.9% in November from 4.2% the previous month, the survey showed.
“If this downward shift continues across time and across different inflation expectation measures, it could challenge the Monetary Policy Committee’s view that expectations remain a barrier to a lower terminal rate and a quicker pace of cuts,” Citi economists said.
Earlier this month, the Bank of England paused its quarterly cycle of rate cuts, citing concern over persistently high inflation. The decision was close, with the Monetary Policy Committee voting 5-4 against cutting rates in November.
Official data released on November 19 showed that consumer price inflation fell to 3.6% in October, down from 3.8% in September—matching the highest level since January 2024.
