UBS Sees Gold Climbing Toward $4,700 as Global Risks Rise
UBS analysts said that gold prices could rise toward $4,700 per ounce as mounting political and financial risks continue to drive demand for safe-haven assets, even as progress toward ending the U.S. government shutdown lifts overall market sentiment.
The bank’s strategists believe the recent pullback in bullion is merely a pause in its broader upward trend.
UBS Expects Gold Rally to Resume Despite Shutdown Optimism
In a note led by strategist Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, UBS said it expects gold prices to climb further even if the conclusion of the longest U.S. government shutdown supports risk appetite in other markets.
The analysts emphasized that political uncertainty remains a key driver for gold, citing ongoing questions over the timing of the Senate vote to finalize the spending bill and the potential for another partial shutdown early next year if Congress fails to secure a long-term deal.
Tariff Ruling and Debt Concerns Support Safe-Haven Demand
UBS also highlighted uncertainty surrounding the U.S. Supreme Court’s upcoming ruling on tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The decision, the bank said, could add to geopolitical volatility and sustain demand for gold.
At the same time, rising global debt levels are reinforcing gold’s appeal as a hedge against fiscal instability and currency depreciation. Data from the World Gold Council showed that total gold demand reached a record high in the September quarter, driven by strong investment flows and renewed central bank buying. UBS expects 2025 to see the strongest full-year demand since 2011.
Fed Rate Cuts and Weak Dollar Outlook to Boost Gold Further
UBS strategists also see monetary policy and currency trends favoring gold. The bank anticipates two more Federal Reserve rate cuts by early 2026, citing weakening labor market data and deteriorating consumer confidence.
“With real U.S. interest rates likely to fall further and undermine the dollar’s strength, gold should remain well-supported,” the report said.
UBS reaffirmed its 12-month price target of $4,200 per ounce but noted that escalating political and financial market risks could push gold as high as $4,700 per ounce.
