RBC Raises Tesla Price Target to $500 on Optimus Robot Potential
RBC Capital Markets has increased its Tesla (TSLA) price target from $325 to $500 per share, citing the massive growth potential of the company’s Optimus humanoid robot. The upgrade reflects RBC’s belief that Tesla could capture a meaningful share of the emerging $9 trillion humanoid robotics market by 2050.
In a note to clients released on Friday, RBC analysts estimated that Tesla might secure 5% of the global humanoid robot market, driven by its technological edge and vertical integration. The forecast followed an investor tour of Tesla’s Berlin Gigafactory, where executives discussed plans to integrate Optimus across manufacturing, hospitality, and consumer sectors.
Tesla’s management reportedly stressed that Optimus will not be used for military or law enforcement purposes. Instead, the company aims to leverage its Full Self-Driving (FSD) software and unified platform as key competitive advantages in scaling the robot’s capabilities.
RBC outlined that humanoid robots could revolutionize industries such as household services (33%), agriculture (21%), manufacturing and logistics (12%), and retail and commerce (11%), creating vast adoption opportunities. According to the analysis, China could represent 61% of total market demand, followed by the Rest of World (24%), Europe (8%), and the United States (7%).
For Tesla specifically, RBC projects a total addressable market (TAM) of $4.3 trillion, nearly half of the global humanoid market, concentrated in consumer, manufacturing, and hospitality applications. Based on these assumptions, analysts forecast that Tesla could generate up to $404 billion in humanoid-related revenue by 2050.
RBC further broke down Tesla’s valuation, attributing 36% to the Optimus segment, 37% to Robotaxi operations, 11% to FSD software, and 8% each to vehicle production and Megapack energy storage.
