Evercore’s Emanuel Sees S&P 500 Soaring to 9,000 by 2026 in Possible Bubble Scenario
The S&P 500 could climb as high as 9,000 by 2026 if a market bubble scenario unfolds, according to Evercore ISI analyst Julian Emanuel. The strategist pointed to rising signs of capital market acceleration, fueled by major leveraged buyouts.
In a research note titled “Goldilocks Plays Madden NFL ’26,” Evercore ISI reaffirmed its base year-end 2026 target of 7,750 for the S&P 500 and raised the probability of a bubble scenario to 30%.
The firm said its optimistic projection was “reinforced by the landmark EA leveraged buyout,” suggesting that such deals indicate renewed strength in the bull market.
Capital Markets Show Signs of Acceleration
Emanuel compared the current environment to past mega buyouts, such as RJR Nabisco in 1988 and TXU in 2007, both of which marked major turning points in market cycles. However, he cautioned that these events also introduced short-term volatility.
Evercore ISI noted that the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average stands near 6,497, with the 100-day average around 6,288 — levels that could attract a short-term pullback. The firm also pointed out that financial stocks, typically among the biggest winners in late-cycle rallies, have lagged the broader market.
Strategic Sectors and Investment Themes
Emanuel advised investors to focus on companies leading in artificial intelligence (AI) — what he calls “AI Enablers, Adopters, and Adapters.” These include stocks in communication services, consumer discretionary, and information technology sectors.
He also recommended using Nasdaq put options as a hedge against potential market corrections.
The health care sector, according to Evercore ISI, presents a tactical buying opportunity. Emanuel described the sector as “underowned” but now benefiting from reduced policy and tariff risks.
“Politics became a positive factor for health care after a high-profile drug pricing and tariff deal eased worst-case fears,” the firm said, drawing parallels with the energy sector’s rebound in 2021–22.
