Bernstein Reiterates Outperform on Novo Nordisk: GLP-1 Portfolio Still Strong

Bernstein has reaffirmed its Outperform rating on Novo Nordisk, saying the company’s GLP-1 drug portfolio for diabetes and obesity remains highly attractive. The update follows new data presented at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) congress in September.

Strong Cardiovascular Data from SOUL Trial

Analysts highlighted fresh results from the SOUL trial, which confirmed significant cardiovascular benefits for Rybelsus (oral semaglutide) in type 2 diabetes patients with cardiovascular and kidney disease. The findings support Novo’s recent European label extension, with U.S. approval expected soon.

Real-world studies, including REACH and STEER, also reinforced semaglutide’s cardioprotective profile compared with Eli Lilly’s dulaglutide and tirzepatide.

Oral Semaglutide in Obesity Market

Bernstein remains bullish on oral semaglutide for obesity. Analysts said the drug continues to stand out against Lilly’s orforglipron thanks to competitive efficacy and tolerability, even with food restrictions.

Novo Nordisk plans to launch oral semaglutide for obesity in the U.S. in early 2026, ahead of orforglipron. Bernstein projects $6.4 billion in sales by 2030, which is 90% above current consensus. The forecast assumes a 30% share of the oral obesity market.

Attractive Valuation and Growth Potential

Bernstein reiterated its Outperform rating based on above-consensus estimates, strong growth potential, and a favorable risk-reward profile. At a target price of DKK 540, Novo Nordisk would trade at a 44% premium to the pharma sector, still below the average seen since the “obesity drug era” began in 2020.