China is expected to ramp up crude oil stockpiling this year and continue through 2026, according to Goldman Sachs, as Beijing seizes on lower prices and strengthens its focus on energy security.
The bank estimates that China will add roughly 500,000 barrels per day to its reserves over the next five quarters, significantly higher than recent market forecasts of Chinese buying.
Goldman’s head of oil research, Daan Struyven, said the buildup reflects both opportunistic purchases and a strategic push to boost inventories. Speaking at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference in Singapore, traders also highlighted that Chinese demand has been a crucial factor supporting oil prices, offsetting concerns about an oversupplied market. Gunvor’s research chief, Frederic Lasserre, placed China’s recent buying closer to 200,000 barrels a day.
China’s crude reserves remain highly opaque, with little transparency on volumes or sourcing. Much of the oil is believed to come from sanctioned producers such as Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, making the flows even harder to track.
Despite China’s heavy stockpiling, Goldman Sachs still expects Brent crude to fall into the mid-$50s per barrel next year, pointing to a global oversupply. The International Energy Agency (IEA) also warned Thursday that the surplus in 2026 could be larger than previously projected as OPEC+ and other producers expand output.
The IEA forecasts supply growth of 2.7 million barrels per day in 2025 and another 2.1 million barrels daily in 2026, as OPEC and its allies unwind production cuts. While global demand is also increasing, the agency sees it lagging behind supply. The IEA raised its 2025 demand outlook to 740,000 barrels a day, citing stronger consumption in advanced economies, but kept its cautious stance compared with OPEC.
By contrast, OPEC reaffirmed its view that demand will rise by 1.29 million barrels a day this year, nearly double the IEA’s forecast, and stressed that the global economy remains resilient moving into the second half of 2025.
