Oil prices dropped around 2% on Wednesday as markets looked ahead to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting this weekend. The group is expected to discuss another increase in production targets for October.
By 12:16 p.m. EDT (1616 GMT), Brent crude fell $1.17, or 1.69%, to $67.97 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined $1.21, or 1.84%, to $64.38 a barrel.
According to sources cited by Reuters, eight members of OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) will debate raising oil production at Sunday’s meeting as they seek to regain market share. Analysts noted that traders had largely expected the group to hold steady, but expectations of a production hike have now increased.
A fresh boost would unwind part of the additional output cuts of 1.65 million barrels per day, equal to about 1.6% of global demand, more than a year earlier than scheduled. This comes after OPEC+ already agreed to raise output by about 2.2 million bpd between April and September, alongside a 300,000 bpd increase for the UAE.
“If output rises in line with new quotas, the market could move into a sizeable surplus from September 2025 through 2026, unless new production restraint is introduced,” said Ole Hvalbye, analyst at SEB bank.
Still, actual OPEC+ increases have often lagged behind targets, as some members offset prior overproduction while others struggled with capacity limits.
Soft U.S. economic data also pressured oil prices. The Labor Department reported that job openings fell more than expected in July, dropping to 7.181 million compared with forecasts of 7.378 million. Earlier in the week, U.S. manufacturing contracted for a sixth consecutive month, fueling concerns about weaker oil demand.
The decline followed Tuesday’s rebound, when oil benchmarks rose more than 1% after Washington imposed sanctions on shipping companies and vessels accused of smuggling Iranian oil disguised as Iraqi exports.
