France’s minority government faces a major test of survival next month after three key opposition parties declared they would not support Prime Minister Francois Bayrou’s upcoming confidence vote. The vote, set for September 8, is tied to Bayrou’s plan for sweeping budget cuts aimed at reducing France’s large fiscal deficit.
The far-right National Rally (RN), the Greens, and later the Socialists—whose votes are crucial for Bayrou’s survival—each announced their opposition. If Bayrou loses the confidence vote in the National Assembly, his government will collapse.
The political turmoil rattled markets, pushing the risk premium on French bonds over German equivalents to its highest since mid-June. The CAC 40 index also fell 1.6% on the day.
If the government falls, President Emmanuel Macron will have several options: appoint a new prime minister, keep Bayrou on as caretaker, or call another snap election. Macron already lost his previous prime minister, Michel Barnier, to a no-confidence vote in late 2024, just three months after taking office following an earlier snap election.
Bayrou admitted that seeking parliamentary support in a fragmented legislature was a gamble but argued it was necessary. His proposed €44 billion budget squeeze includes scrapping two public holidays, freezing welfare spending, and keeping tax brackets fixed at 2025 levels without adjusting for inflation. He acknowledged some measures, like removing bank holidays, could still be adjusted.
Even if Bayrou wins the confidence vote, it would only indicate backing for his fiscal stance. Lawmakers are expected to vote on the full 2026 budget later this year.
Opposition leaders quickly signaled Bayrou’s chances were slim. RN leader Jordan Bardella declared that Bayrou had effectively announced “the end of his government” by calling the vote. Marine Le Pen also confirmed her party would vote against him, as did the Greens and the hard-left France Unbowed. Socialist leader Olivier Faure said his party would not back Bayrou either, making it highly likely that opposition forces will unite to oust the government.
Adding to the pressure, nationwide protests are planned for September 10, two days after the vote. Organized via social media and supported by unions and left-wing parties, the demonstrations are already drawing comparisons to the Yellow Vest protests of 2018, which erupted over fuel prices and broader economic grievances.
Bayrou warned that inaction was riskier than reform, stressing France’s rising debt, which stood at 5.8% of GDP in 2024—nearly double the EU’s 3% ceiling. The coming vote will not only decide the fate of his government but also test France’s ability to push through painful fiscal reforms.
