Oil Prices Hold Steady Ahead of U.S.-Russia Peace Talks
Oil prices were stable on Monday after falling more than 4% last week. Investors are focused on upcoming U.S.-Russia talks aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.
By 1:01 p.m. EDT (1701 GMT), Brent crude futures rose 12 cents, or 0.18%, to $66.71 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 19 cents, or 0.3%, to $64.07.
High-Stakes Meeting in Alaska
On Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump said he will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 15 in Alaska to negotiate a peace deal. The talks come amid increased U.S. pressure on Moscow, with the possibility of tighter sanctions if no agreement is reached.
Trump said both Ukraine and Russia would need to cede land to each other to end the conflict. His meeting with Putin will gauge the prospects for a deal.
“The recent sell-off in crude has paused as markets await Friday’s high-stakes meeting,” said Alex Hodes, analyst at StoneX.
Tariff Pressure on Russia and India
Trump had set a deadline last Friday for Russia to agree to peace or face secondary sanctions on its oil buyers. Washington is also urging India to cut Russian oil imports.
Oil prices fell in recent days after traders lowered supply disruption forecasts. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said this was likely because the U.S. imposed an extra tariff only on India, rather than all buyers of Russian oil.
UBS Lowers Oil Price Forecast
UBS cut its year-end Brent crude forecast to $62 a barrel from $68, citing higher supply from South America and continued output from sanctioned countries. The bank also noted weaker-than-expected Indian demand and predicted OPEC+ may pause production hikes unless major supply disruptions occur.
A Reuters survey showed OPEC output rose in July after the group’s production agreement. Gains were limited by Iraq’s additional cuts and drone attacks on Kurdish oilfields.
Market Balancing Factors
“The balance right now is between OPEC not raising production as much as expected versus the possibility of a Ukraine ceasefire deal that could free Russian oil,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group. “That balance has oil bouncing around like a yo-yo.”
New Guyana Production and Weak Chinese Data
Elsewhere, an Exxon Mobil-led consortium began oil production four months ahead of schedule at its fourth floating production, storage, and offloading vessel in Guyana.
Meanwhile, data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed producer prices fell more than expected in July, signaling ongoing weakness in industrial demand.
