China’s Export Growth Likely Ticked Up in June Amid Fears of Tariff Reinstatement
China’s exports likely saw a modest rise in June, as exporters accelerated shipments in anticipation of renewed trade tensions with the United States. Concerns over the fragility of the current truce with Washington—and the risk of President Donald Trump reimposing additional tariffs—prompted many to front-load outbound deliveries.
According to a Reuters poll of 23 economists, exports are expected to have increased by 5.0% year-over-year in value terms, slightly up from a 4.8% gain in May. Imports likely rebounded by 1.3% after contracting 3.4% the previous month, reflecting signs of improving domestic demand supported by earlier policy measures.
China’s export-heavy economy has been under pressure from Trump’s unpredictable trade agenda, which has included multiple rounds of tit-for-tat tariffs with Beijing—posing a direct challenge to the country’s traditional growth model.
A tentative truce brokered in May during talks in Geneva was nearly derailed when the U.S. accused China of failing to follow through on a commitment to ease restrictions on rare earth exports—materials vital to sectors ranging from tech to defense.
Tensions de-escalated in June following two days of negotiations in London, where both sides agreed to revive the tariff truce. However, with few concrete terms made public, uncertainty remains high among traders and investors.
China now faces an August 12 deadline to secure a more durable trade agreement with Washington, as Trump intensifies his global tariff campaign. Analysts warn the U.S. president could pressure allies to limit trade with China in exchange for tariff exemptions.
Earlier this month, Trump pledged to impose a 40% tariff on trans-shipments via third countries such as Vietnam—a move that could impact Chinese firms routing goods through the region. Vietnam overtook several markets to become China’s second-largest export destination in 2024.
Trump has also threatened to levy a 10% tariff on imports from BRICS countries “soon,” potentially raising further economic risks for Beijing, which is a founding BRICS member.
Meanwhile, China’s trade relationship with the European Union remains strained. Just weeks before a key bilateral summit, the EU accused China of overproducing and flooding global markets, restricting market access, and supporting Russia’s war economy.
In a rare gesture, Beijing agreed to exempt major cognac brands from newly imposed duties on EU brandy imports. However, the broader dispute—particularly regarding Chinese electric vehicles—remains unresolved.
With the 90-day China-U.S. tariff truce nearing its expiration, analysts expect exporters to continue pushing shipments to take advantage of the temporary reprieve. Yet, economists at Nomura caution that export growth will likely slow significantly in the second half of 2025, weighed down by persistent tariffs, Trump’s clampdown on rerouted shipments, and deteriorating ties with the EU.
“Exports are poised to become a drag on growth this year, reversing their positive contribution from last year,” Nomura noted.
China’s trade surplus for June is projected to reach $109 billion, up from $103.22 billion in May.
