In this post:
– Rekt Capital notes that Bitcoin’s anticipated rally is about 20 days behind previous cycles.
– Bitcoin needs to surpass the $71,000 resistance level to kick off a significant rally.
– Three key reasons suggest the 2024 U.S. election may have minimal impact on Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
As the 2024 U.S. elections approach, speculation around Bitcoin’s price movement has intensified. While political dynamics involving both Republican and Democratic presidential candidates are influencing market sentiment, Bitcoin seems poised for a potential parabolic phase. This raises the question of whether BTC’s historical price patterns could overshadow any election effects. Here are three reasons to believe that the election in November might not significantly impact Bitcoin’s price in 2025.
Bitcoin’s Rally Delayed by 20 Days
According to crypto trader and analyst Rekt Capital, Bitcoin has not yet entered its parabolic phase, a period marked by rapid price increases, which is about 20 days behind previous cycles. On October 15, Bitcoin crossed the $66,000 mark, repeating its move from September, and has been trending upward without breaking key support levels like the 50-day moving average. The analyst suggests that the market accelerated before the April 2024 halving, which may have influenced its current timeline.
Historical Price Trends
In previous cycles, Bitcoin typically entered its parabolic phase within six months of the halving event. Rekt Capital expects BTC to break out of its re-accumulation phase roughly 160 days post-halving. This cycle, however, appears different, leading the analyst to predict the market peak around September or October 2025. To enter the parabolic phase, Bitcoin must first break through resistance at $71,000. Once the rally begins, external factors like the U.S. election might have little effect on BTC’s momentum.
Bitcoin’s Independence from the U.S. Elections
While Republican candidate Donald Trump has promoted Bitcoin during his campaign, and Kamala Harris has shown recent interest in crypto, Bitcoin’s price trajectory may remain unaffected by the election outcome for three reasons. First, the upcoming parabolic phase is unlikely to be disrupted, as crypto is increasingly viewed as a bipartisan issue. Second, Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $73,000 during the Biden-Harris administration, indicating it operates independently of political influence. Lastly, broader economic factors like inflation and monetary policy will likely play a larger role in BTC’s price movement in Q4, with BTC options traders not expecting major changes around November 5, according to Market Watch.
